Saturday, February 28, 2009

gold popularity

Unless you live under a rock you've noticed the increasingly numerous ads in the media about gold (nothing on silver yet). On the one hand this could be a contrarian indicator signalling a top is near.

While that's always a possibility I have my doubts. For one, the Dow:gold ratio is only at 7 right now. That's a far cry from the 1:1 that I expect to see at the final blow off top.

Second, gold was only about 11% above the 200 DMA recently. Again a far cry from the 60% that I expect to see at the final top.

Let's face it, in order for the gold bubble to happen we need the public to come into the gold market. I think we are still in the initial stages of the public becoming aware of the golden bull.

Another thing I've noticed is that most of the advertisements for gold are offers to buy gold. That sounds more like smart money trying to part you from your gold instead of savvy investors trying to unload at the top.