Monday, January 12, 2009

60 minutes on oil

This is all over the Internet today and I'm going to throw my 2 cents in also.

The basis of the 60 minutes story was that the spike in oil last summer was caused by speculators. Duh ya think?

But there's so much more to the story than that. The beginning of the oil bull market was rooted in fundamentals just like any bull market. The end of a the bull market was carried on the back of speculation and greed again just like all bull markets.

However the ultimate blame has to fall squarely on the Fed. They are the ones that turned on the printing presses in the ill planned attempt to stop the recession. All of a sudden trading desks and big banks had billions of excess dollars to work with. Unfortunately there was only one thing going up at the time...oil. The logical choice was for all this excess money to flow into the one market that was resisting the bear, the energy markets.

I warned for months and months this was what was going to happen when I saw the dollar start to tank. I also warned for months that a spike of 100% or more within a year's time would lead to a recession.

Geez one has to wonder when the media will finally figure out that all our troubles are being caused by the idiots at the Fed that everyone seems so inclined to put their trust in. How far must they run us into the ground before we wake up.