Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Is Deflation back?

The action today in the dollar is suggesting that it may very well be. It's now possible that no mater how much money the FED prints, the forces of deflation are going to overwhelm it. One way or another the massive amount of debt that has been created over the last 20+ years is going to have to be destroyed. The million (or should I say trillion) dollar question is whether it is going to be hyperinflated away or destroyed through deflation.

With the introduction of the 700 billion bailout package it looked like hyperinflation was going to carry the day. However as we all know that fizzled. I'm going to be watching gold closely now. The rest of the commodity complex is deflating spectacularly. The only hold out is gold.

I expect gold will test the $850 level sometime in the next week or two. If it can hold above that level then perhaps the powers that be can induce one more inflationary surge. If however gold sinks back below $850 and follows the rest of the commodity markets down it may be that the end game is here and deflation is now unstoppable.

Either way the end game was always going to be a massive deflation. The only question was how long could it be postponed.