Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Runaway move in the energy markets

The massive amount of liquidity the Fed has created as they try to prevent a recession before elections has now created a runaway move in the energy markets. So far each correction in oil has been slight, in the range of $11 to $7. Make no mistake when this parabolic move collapses it's going to be spectacular.

That being said no one in their right mind should be shorting this thing yet. A good rule of thumb is to be on the look out for a correction that exceeds the previous corrections by 20% before trying to call the top. That would work out to be roughly $13.50. Once oil corrects by at least that amount then we might be looking at the end of this move. Until that happens your odds of trying to pick the top of this move are not good.

I've also included the charts of gold and silver. The Fed has flooded the world with so much liquidity that for the first time in this bull market a D wave decline was unable to push gold or silver back to the 200 DMA.