Wednesday, November 28, 2007


I think this is the key to whether the market recovers and goes higher or whether the rally yesterday and today was just a pressure release of extreme bearish sentiment. So far the piggies are still making lower lows and lower highs. I suspect they still have many skeletons in the closet that haven't popped out yet. If the BKX rolls over again and heads down I have a feeling we're going to see more downside for the markets. As we all know I think we are heading into the 4 year cycle low. It is possible that the 4 year cycle low was put in with a 10% decline. It would be the smallest cycle low in history if so. It would also be the shortest peak to trough cycle low. It is possible the Fed has done away with 4 year cycles aka the business cycle. It's also possible the Fed has now done away with ever having another recession. Let's just say I'm a skeptic.