NEW SMT ADDRESS

I'm starting to get a ton of spam on the blog lately so I've decided to try moving the blog to a new address. The new address will be easier to remember anyway :) www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com

THE STRONG BROTHERS ARE LEADING THE CHARGE

During the 01-08 stage of the commodity bull platinum was the strong brother of the precious metal complex. Where he led the rest of the complex followed.

Well platinum is at it again, only this time he's got help. Palladium is also leading the charge higher. Both metals have eclipsed their December highs. As a matter of fact both metals have been so strong that the 50 day moving average never even turned down during the recent correction.

We still need to see gold rally above $1161 to break the pattern of lower lows and lower highs but the action in platinum and palladium is suggesting this C-wave still has further to go.

I suspect how the dollar reacts to the employment figures tomorrow will probably give us a big clue as to the next move in gold. Ironically I suspect a poor jobs number is going to be more bullish for the markets as it will probably depress the dollar.  Perhaps even completing a weekly swing high which is one of our requirements for a continuation of the C-wave.

4 DAY RULE

Yesterdays rally completed a 4 day rule possible trend change. (4 days in a row counter to the trend after a long intermediate move often signals a trend change.)

We also have the same signal in the miners which in my opinion is more important as the miners have been the laggards in this sector. We need to see the miners leading this rally. 

If the trend break can hold into the close that will be another big step in the right direction towards confirming a continuation of the C-wave.

THE FOUR KEYS

I'm still sitting on the fence as to whether gold is stuck in a D-wave decline or whether this has been a very tricky midpoint consolidation. I will say the recent strength despite a strong dollar is very encouraging.

There are four important requirements that have to happen before we can say with a high degree of confidence that the C-wave is still in play.

The single most important is the dollar. We simply must see the intermediate dollar cycle top. No C-wave has been able to fight a rising dollar. The dollar is getting late enough in the intermediate cycle that it could put in a top at any time.

The next requirement is for gold to put in a right translated daily cycle. If this remains a D-wave then all daily cycles should be left translated. If gold can eclipse $1131 this week then we will have a right translated cycle and that shouldn't happen in a D-wave decline.

The next hurdle is the $1161 level has to be surpassed. Gold has to break the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. It will do that if gold can top $1161. That will also eliminate the December trough as the intermediate cycle low and move the phasing to February. That is very important as it will mean gold is on week 4 of the cycle instead of week 10. That would give gold 6 more weeks for the second leg to progress.

And finally we need the miners to start participating. If the HUI can cut through the 420 resistance level that will be a big step in the right direction. If miners can break out to new highs along with gold all resistance in the gold market will be out of the way and the path will be clear for the second leg of the C-wave to rack up another monster move.