Monday, October 6, 2008

20 under the 200

Today we saw one of those rare long side setups that only happen in bear markets. What I'm talking about is a 20% under the 200 DMA buy signal. All markets regress to the mean whether they be bull or bear it doesn't matter. This leg down has gotten too stretched. It needs to regress to the mean soon before the next leg down can unfold.

At the low point today the S&P was a little over 24% below the 200 DMA. Did we see an important intermediate low today? It's certainly possible. If not I think we are getting very close. I'll have more details and statistics in tonights update.