THE ODDS REVERSE

At the beginning of the month we were told how bullish the month of December always is. Actually December ends positive only about 64% of the time with an average gain of a little over 1.2%. You can see in the next chart that's just about what we got...another average December.

Now however those odds reverse as 6 of the last 10 January's have produced negative returns. For the many reasons I've gone over in the nightly updates I think we are probably going to see another January swoon this year.

I certainly don't expect it to be anything like last year though. Probably something on the order of a -10% correction is the most likely scenario before we start the next leg up in this cyclical bull, which by the way, I doubt will have more than three legs before rolling over into the next extended bear market phase.

More in the weekend report.