Saturday, February 28, 2009

gold popularity

Unless you live under a rock you've noticed the increasingly numerous ads in the media about gold (nothing on silver yet). On the one hand this could be a contrarian indicator signalling a top is near.

While that's always a possibility I have my doubts. For one, the Dow:gold ratio is only at 7 right now. That's a far cry from the 1:1 that I expect to see at the final blow off top.

Second, gold was only about 11% above the 200 DMA recently. Again a far cry from the 60% that I expect to see at the final top.

Let's face it, in order for the gold bubble to happen we need the public to come into the gold market. I think we are still in the initial stages of the public becoming aware of the golden bull.

Another thing I've noticed is that most of the advertisements for gold are offers to buy gold. That sounds more like smart money trying to part you from your gold instead of savvy investors trying to unload at the top.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Dollar breakout

Today the dollar marginally broke out above the Nov. closing highs. I've been watching the ongoing T1 pattern as it unfolds. Today's breakout above the 88 level if it holds will likely spell trouble for equities.

I'll go over the implications of the breakout in the weekend report. Well at least my opinion of what it implies.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Silver or gold?

It's no secret that I've turned bullish on gold. Yes, it appears we are starting a correction. Unfortunately all bull markets have them. Nothing goes straight up as they say.

The question is will this just be a minor correction followed by gold breaking the $1000 barrier or will we see another test of $850 or even a move to new lows? Nobody knows for sure least of all me.

However what I do believe is that we will see the Dow:gold ratio go to 1:1 before this is over. As long as one has patience, human nature should run its course and make any timing mistakes meaningless in the long run.

That being said I think there is a better place to be than gold. Lets say for the sake of argument that gold eventually goes to $4000. Sounds far fetched I know but then again bull markets always rise farther than anyone expects (just like bear markets drop deeper than anyone expects). A powerful bull market can easily do 2000% from trough to peak. Gold bottomed at $250. You do the math.

Now I want you to take a look at the chart. That's the ratio of silver to gold. Historically that ratio averages roughly 20 to 1. The panic selling this fall took this ratio to a ridiculous 88 to 1.

Now maybe silver doesn't get all the way back to 20:1. Let's just say for arguments sake that silver goes to 30-1 when gold tops out. That would put silver over $130 an oz. if gold reaches $4000.

Buying at today's price of $14.00 that would be an almost 900% gain as opposed to only 300% for gold.

I think the really big money is going to be made in silver as the next phase of the precious metals bull gets underway.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Is gold topping?

This seems to be the general consensus everywhere I look. It seems like everyone has noticed that gold is overbought and somehow that means gold has topped out. Don't get me wrong, it is entirely possible that gold has gone as far as it's going to go.

I just wanted to point out a few things. First off overbought doesn't necessarily mean top. Just go back and look at the breakout in 07.

Next, I want to take note that gold has now closed over $1000 for the third time in history. It's only a few dollars from closing at all time highs. Gold is already at all time closing highs on the weekly and monthly charts. Granted the month isn't over yet.

The COT isn't especially negative on gold yet and silver is still extremely bullish.

Gold has been moving steadily higher since Nov. I'm not really sure what's bearish about that.

Gold is still in a secular bull market.

The 50 day moving average has crossed back above the 200 day moving average and the 200 day moving average is turning back up.

Silver is forming a powerful rounded base. So are Platinum and Palladium.

The mining stocks are still stupid cheap compared to the price of gold.

The junior sector is exploding for the first time in quite a while.

Volume has been very heavy in the ETF's and mining stocks in general.

Other than biotech, which is questionable, precious metals are the only bull market in town so to speak.

As far as I can see the miners are the only sector that has improving earnings potential. The price of their product is going up and their expenses are coming down. I don't think we can say that for just about any other sector.

So sure gold could top anytime but until it does it seems like a waste of energy to try and pick a top. I think the greater danger is if gold breaks out of the year long consolidation above $1000 and enters the next phase of the bull market and one isn't on board because they were worried about an overbought oscillator.

Ultimately gold will finish the secular bull market no matter what the dollar or Euro or any currency does. So even if one doesn't spot every short term top correctly the overall trend will eventually correct any timing mistakes. That is if one has the patience to let the bull work for them.

More in the weekend update...

Friday, February 20, 2009

SPX Bollinger band crash trade

We now have another Bollinger band crash trade signal. The Bollinger band crash trade is and has been one of the most successful mechanical trading strategies during this bear market. It was in the 2000-2002 bear market also.

I expect we will see a bounce off the Nov. lows which will have all the bulls crying double bottom. I seriously doubt the double bottom will hold but we should get a bounce at least back above the Wednesday open.

Don't forget there are gaps in both the SPYDER's and Cube's from Tuesday's gap down open that are still begging to be filled also.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Golden sentiment


Granted these things are hard to quantify but it seems to me that the prevailing sentiment right now towards gold is that it is overbought and due for a correction.

I'm not really seeing the panic buying that typifies most tops in gold.

I've pointed out before that overbought can get a heck of a lot more overbought in a powerful bull market.

All those traders that sold their silver because it was overbought only managed to miss a 30+% move.

If we do get a correction, great, I'll be able to put the rest of my capital to work. But selling simply because a bull market is overbought? No thank you!

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

"Old Turkey"

I love this story from Reminisces of a stock operator. It is so appropriate as the second phase of the gold and silver bull get underway.

"Most let us call' em customers -- are alike. You find very few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn't owe them money. In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades!Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man.

Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others.He did not seem very keen to get tips -- that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again -- when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by.

It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.

The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock.They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same. The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"

Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market,you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.

One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it. Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."

Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out."Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap."Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.

Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!" From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No!No! I can't do that!": 'What?" yelled Elmer. "I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble."Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?""You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.Indeed, I am, sir. But --" "Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?""It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."

"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers."No, I couldn't.""Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer."Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation."That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.""My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"

Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?""I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.

What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market.The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.